Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 13 brokers · 516 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-29.
Ford's broker models are a four-engine story: Ford Pro (commercial) is the steady profit driver, Ford Blue (ICE) steps up in FY-2026, Ford Credit contributes a stable profit, and Ford Model E (EV) loses money in every year of the forecast even as its deficit narrows. Operating diluted EPS is modeled to jump from $1.13 to $1.82 in FY-2026, then rise only modestly toward FY-2028. Revenue grinds higher on price and mix rather than unit volume, which stays roughly flat. Coverage is deep on the headline P&L but thins on the segment, cash-flow, and dividend lines.
Ford Pro is the modeled profit engine; Model E loses money every year through FY-2028
Ford Pro's operating profit rises every year and Ford Blue steps up sharply in FY-2026, while Model E stays deeply loss-making even as its deficit shrinks. Ford Credit is a steady contributor and Corporate Other a small persistent drag.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit engines | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford Pro - Operating | $6.86bn | $7.20bn | $7.72bn | $7.94bn | +5.0% | 10 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford Blue - Operating | $3.23bn | $5.28bn | $4.96bn | $5.23bn | +63.8% | 10 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford credit (Financial services) - Operating | $2.35bn | $2.72bn | $2.71bn | $2.76bn | +15.7% | 10 |
| EV drag | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford Model E - Operating | $-4.94bn | $-4.09bn | $-3.75bn | $-2.98bn | +17.2% | 10 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Corporate Other - Operating | $-599.13m | $-625.00m | $-645.39m | $-656.67m | -4.3% | 10 |
Where brokers split: the depth of Model E's EV losses and near-term cash
The FY-2026 free-cash-flow range spans negative to positive territory, so the modeled cash path is contested even in direction.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford Model E - Operating | FY-2028E | $-2.71bn | $-3.24bn–$-2.54bn | $-4.45bn–$-2.14bn | 7 |
| Free cash flow - Company excluding Ford Credit | FY-2026E | $345.30m | $-1.70bn–$2.82bn | $-3.57bn–$5.99bn | 7 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Ford Blue - Operating | FY-2028E | $5.23bn | $4.51bn–$6.03bn | $4.20bn–$6.12bn | 7 |
Ford Blue and Ford Pro carry the top line; Model E revenue dips in FY-2026 before recovering
Ford Blue and Ford Pro are the overwhelming majority of revenue; Model E is small, and its FY-2026 revenue dip reflects a modeled pullback in EV volume before a later recovery.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Ford Blue | $99.68bn | $106.53bn | $107.63bn | $109.43bn | +6.9% | 10 |
| Revenue - Ford Pro | $66.17bn | $67.15bn | $68.99bn | $70.48bn | +1.5% | 10 |
| Revenue - Ford Credit (Financial services) | $13.36bn | $13.68bn | $13.89bn | $14.19bn | +2.4% | 12 |
| Revenue - Ford Model E | $6.42bn | $4.85bn | $5.87bn | $8.64bn | -24.5% | 10 |
| Total revenue | $185.70bn | $192.65bn | $196.81bn | $200.27bn | +3.7% | 12 |
Modeled revenue growth is priced, not shipped — volume is flat, revenue per unit rises
Total deliveries barely move across the forecast; the revenue increase comes almost entirely from higher revenue per unit, with Ford Pro commanding the richest mix. Model E deliveries are cut for FY-2026 before re-accelerating.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total units sold(K#) | 4.39m Number | 4.24m Number | 4.35m Number | 4.48m Number | -3.6% | 9 |
| Units sold - Ford Model E(K#) | 167,495 Number | 137,443 Number | 159,204 Number | 215,479 Number | -17.9% | 9 |
| Price / mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rev/unit - Total($) | $39,167 | $42,119 | $41,981 | $42,222 | +7.5% | 9 |
| Rev/unit - Ford Pro($) | $44,068 | $46,654 | $46,313 | $46,378 | +5.9% | 9 |
| Rev/unit - Ford Blue($) | $36,495 | $40,021 | $39,885 | $39,918 | +9.7% | 9 |
Coverage thins on segment and cash-flow lines
The headline P&L carries up to 13 brokers, but segment operating income and units rest on 7-10 and free-cash-flow and dividend lines on just 3-7 brokers, so treat the segment splits and cash path as directional. Estimates were last revised in late July 2026.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.