Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-01.
The consensus tape shows a low-margin, roughly $174bn-revenue business whose earnings estimates are drifting up faster than its top line: FY2027 normalized EPS is up 4.6% over 180 days against a 2% revenue revision. Analysts have under-forecast revenue for seven straight quarters and normalized EPS in seven of the last eight, so guidance reads conservative. Yet the street stays hold-heavy, 13 holds against 8 buy-side ratings, with target prices spanning $11 to $20. Coverage thins sharply beyond FY2028, and several EPS surprises are exaggerated by near-zero consensus bases.
FY2027 EPS estimates up 4.6% over 180 days, outrunning a 2% revenue lift
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $1.81 | $1.85 | $1.83 | $1.90 | +2.6% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $2.28 | $2.09 | $2.08 | $2.15 | +2.9% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $175.27bn | $177.16bn | $177.40bn | $178.83bn | +0.9% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $185.28bn | $185.21bn | $184.90bn | $184.07bn | -0.6% |
Revenue beat seven straight quarters before a narrow Q2 FY2026 slip
Normalized EPS has cleared consensus in seven of the last eight prints, the exception a 33% Q4 FY2025 shortfall; note that several EPS surprises are magnified by near-zero consensus bases.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $45.47bn | $44.89bn | -1.3% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.35 | $0.42 | +21.3% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $38.60bn | $39.82bn | +3.2% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.19 | $0.66 | +256.6% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $41.78bn | $42.45bn | +1.6% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.19 | $0.13 | -32.9% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $43.86bn | $47.19bn | +7.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.36 | $0.45 | +25.4% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $43.93bn | $46.94bn | +6.9% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.33 | $0.37 | +11.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $35.79bn | $37.42bn | +4.6% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.02 | $0.14 | +557.0% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $42.83bn | $44.94bn | +4.9% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.32 | $0.39 | +20.4% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $41.95bn | $43.07bn | +2.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.47 | $0.49 | +4.0% | Beat |
EBITDA and EPS growth outrun low-single-digit revenue gains through FY2028
Revenue is forecast to grow low-single-digits a year while EBITDA and normalized EPS climb faster, the signature of a margin-recovery story rather than a volume one.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $175.43bn | $178.83bn | $184.07bn | +0.8% | 11 | $169.94bn / $181.73bn |
| EBITDA | $13.66bn | $14.39bn | $15.93bn | +13.6% | 9 | $10.58bn / $15.77bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $1.86 | $1.90 | $2.15 | +70.8% | 15 | $1.79 / $1.93 |
Analysts split widely on FY2027 EPS and FY2028 revenue
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $1.90 | $1.40–$2.15 | 39.6% | 22 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $184.07bn | $168.05bn–$198.70bn | 16.7% | 7 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $2.15 | $1.70–$2.59 | 41.4% | 14 |
Street snapshot
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 5, Outperform 3, Hold 13, Underperform 0, Sell 1 | 22 |
| Consensus score | 2.50 | 22 |
| Target price | mean $15.78; median $15.46; high $20.00; low $11.00 | 20 |
EPS surprise percentages distorted by near-zero quarterly consensus
Quarterly normalized-EPS consensus near breakeven (Q1 FY2025 at $0.02, Q1 FY2026 at $0.19) produces surprise readings above 250% that overstate the true beat; the steadier revenue surprises are the more reliable signal.